Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Modi rally, key contestants in Arrah ready with past, BJP & AAP remain new entrants



For Arrah Lok Sabha seat, candidates have filed their nominations. The key contest is between JDU, CPIML, RJD and BJP. Since 1952 till date, BJP has had no electoral presence in the history of the constituency. The core question is: Will history change? 

Raju Yadav of CPI ML Liberation with election symbol Flag with Three Stars, filed his nomination on March 25, 2014. He is a youth leader of repute with years of political work at the grass root level. The possibility of his victory because of a committed cadre and division of votes among rival candidates is most talked about topic in the villages. In 2009 elections, CPI (ML) (L) had got 115966 votes. In 1989, Rameshwar Prasad became their MP from this constituency in what was then called Indian People's Front. Dipankar Bhattachrya, the General Secretary of CPI ML has been campaigning rigorously along with the candidate in the district with minimal resources. He was in Saraiya Bazar and Jamalpur to address election public meetings on March 31. Their local leader Budhram Paswan was killed on March 23 when they were commemorating Shaheed-e-Azam Bhagat Singh’s martyrdom day. Paswan was Charpokhri Block secretary and a member of the Bhojpur District Committee. Another respected teacher Akbar Khan of Piro was also killed.      

The sitting MP from Arrah, Meena Singh of Janta Dal United (JDU) filed her nomination on March 26, 2014 with arrow is the election symbol. She is likely to get votes of poor minorities in a big way.  In 2009 elections, she got 212726 votes. JDU decided to stick with her although RJD MLA from Barhara and a former minister, Raghvendra Pratap Singh ditched RJD and joined JDU hoping to get Lok Sabha ticket. If her voters do not leave her, she has a bright chance. The real contest for the same vote share will be between CPIML Liberation and JDU.  

But with the likely rally of Narendra Modi in Arrah on April 10, the chances of Raj Kumar Singh of BJP might emerge brighter. He filed his nomination on March 24, 2014 with lotus as election symbol. He is a former IAS officer who retired as Secretary, Ministry of Home Affairs.RSS sources have revealed that if he wins the election, he is likely to be made the Minister of State for Home Affairs. One local TV reporter noted that this candidate’s aristocratic style carries the aura of a bureaucrat, not a people’s representative. The fact that he is not from the Bhojpuri speaking belt might act as a liability as well. In a muted way some local BJP leaders who have been devoted party workers even in times of crisis are critical of dropping parachute non-party candidates who joined the party for post-retirement rehabilitation. But all these grievances does not mean they will not vote for BJP. One local Mukhiya from Koilwar block opined that these misgivings will evaporate post Modi rally but underlined that a Bhojpuri speaking and down to earth candidate would have been better.  

The caste factor is likely to put both Meena Singh of JDU and Raj Kumar Singh of BJP at a disadvantage as they will eat into each other’s vote share.

Dr Surendra Kumar Prasad of Aam Aadmi Party with election symbol broom filed his nomination of 25 March, 2014. AAP candidate might eat into the vote share of BJP and JDU.  

Sri Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha of Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) filed nomination with election symbol hurricane lamp on March 26, 2014. It is his own reputation of party hopping which will make or mar is fate. RJD has an electoral alliance for this seat with the Indian National Congress which is inconsequential in the district since 1984. Being a former State Minister, Kushwaha of RJD is attempting to put CPILML’s candidate Raju Yadav at a disadvantage. Kushwaha had deserted CPIML to join RJD, then he deserted RJD and joined JDU. In this election, he rejoined RJD.   In the assembly election as a JD-U candidate, he was defeated by Dinesh Kumar Singh of RJD. Dinesh Kumar Singh wanted Lok Sabha ticket from RJD but Lalu Prasad Yadav preferred Sri Bhagwan Singh.  

There is also a speculation doing the rounds in Arrah that come what may, Yadavs will vote for CPIML who happens to be a Yadav because they are peeved with RJD for having fielded a Kushwaha candidate. While it is quite unlikely that RJD will express last minute support for the CPIML candidate, but between April 10 and April 17, if Lalu Yadav sees a clear sign of Modi factor at work, he might decide to do back Raju Yadav. 

The nomination of Ram Avadhesh Singh of All India Trinamool Congress with election symbol two leaves which was filed on March 26, 2014 has been rejected.

Meanwhile, following complaints about Bhojpur DM, Pankaj Kumar Pal and Bhojpur SP, Satya Veer Singh, they have been transferred. Saravanan M joined as the new DM of Bhojpur with effect from March 27, 2014. SP (CID, weaker section), Kim has been made the SP of Bhojpur. She has been SP of Patna and Bhagalpur.

The Election Commission has also received complaints about Tauheed Parvez, DSP (Headquarters), Bhojpur who is all set to be transferred. Alakh Niranjan Pandey, one Booth Level Officer (BLO) has been framed in a fake police case in Shahpur block of the constituency where BJP has a sitting MLA. Rajesh Kumar, DSP, Jagdishpur is handling the case. The Chief Electoral Officer, the Election Commission and district administration and state police chief besides Bihar Human Right Commission have been apprised of this case.   


There are 6.21 crore electors in Bihar out of which 2.90 crore are women. There are 1,660,614 electors in Arrah. Out of which 737,179 are women and 923,435 are men. In 2009 parliamentary elections, Arrah had 1555122 electors. There were 1634 Polling Stations.  

The seven assembly constituencies under this Lok Sabha constituency include Sandesh, Barhara, Arrah, Agiaon, Tarari, Jagdishpur and Shahpur. 

List of the Members of Parliament elected from Arrah Lok Sabha constituency in the past is as under:
    1952: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1957: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1962: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1967: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1971: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1977: Chandradeo Prasad Verma, Janata Party
    1980: Chandradeo Prasad Verma, Janata Party (Socialist)
    1984: Bali Ram Bhagat, Indian National Congress
    1989: Rameshwar Prasad, Indian People's Front
    1991: Ram Lakhan Singh Yadav, Janata Dal
    1996: Chandradeo Prasad Verma, Janata Dal
    1998: H.P. Singh, Samata Party
    1999: Ram Prasad Singh, Rashtriya Janata Dal
    2004: Kanti Singh, Rashtriya Janata Dal
    2009: Meena Singh, Janata Dal (United)

This list reveals that BJP has never ever been in the picture in the electoral past of Arrah.

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