Bihar’s first phase of polls on 6 seats offer no signal for UPA, NDA or Federal Front

In the first phase of elections in Bihar, voting happened on April 10 in six Lok Sabha constituencies. 

These six constituencies are reserved seats of Sasaram, Jamui and Gaya, Karakat, Aurangabad and Nawada. 

The contest in Sasaram has become four cornered with Meira Kumar, the Lok Sabha Speaker who is the sitting MP from Sasaram facing K P Ramaiah of JDU and Chhedi Paswan of BJP. Chhedi Paswan is a former JDU minister has been elected twice from this very constituency in 1989 and 1991 on the ticket from Janata Dal.  He is the sitting MLA from Mohania assembly constituency. On the night of April 7, he suffered injury in his back and suffered fracture of fingers of both the hands at Chitauli (Baradih bridge) because of a road accident caused by his driver who was deprived of sleep.  

Tetara Devi of CPIML Liberation is also contesting but her performance in 2010 assembly elections for Mohania was quite poor when JDU, RJD, Indian National Congress and BSP had performed better and as JDU candidate Chhedi Paswan had won. BJP had no presence in this assembly constituency.

In the current Lok Sabha elections, BSP and RJD have not fielded candidates and Chhedi Paswan, JDU MLA of Mohania has become a BJP candidate. RJD is in explicit alliance with Indian National Congress and BSP is in implicit alliance with the Congress candidate.   

This election in Sasaram is likely to be a verdict on issue of incomplete Karamchat dam or the Durgavati reservoir project whose foundation stone was laid in 1976 by Jagjivan Ram, the then Union minister of the Indian National Congress. This project exposes Congress party’s claims to the core.

Besides this there is a possibility that Medhavi Kirti, the granddaughter of Jagjivan Ram who is opposed to Meira Kumar and who attempted to contest on BSP and Indian National Congress (Jagjivan) ticket might play some role that can spoil the chances of Meira Kumar for good.

Sasaram Lok Sabha constituency has six legislative assembly constituencies which are Mohania, Bhabua, Chainpur, Chenari, Sasaram and Kargahar.

In the past this constituency elected the following Members of Parliament:

    1952: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress

    1957: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress

    1962: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress

    1967: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress

    1971: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress

    1977: Jagjivan Ram, Janata Party

    1980: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress (Jagjivan)

    1984: Jagjivan Ram, Indian National Congress (Jagjivan)

    1989: Chhedi Paswan, Janata Dal

    1991: Chhedi Paswan, Janata Dal

    1996: Muni Lall, Bharatiya Janata Party

    1998: Muni Lall, Bharatiya Janata Party

    1999: Muni Lall, Bharatiya Janata Party

    2004: Meira Kumar, Indian National Congress

    2009: Meira Kumar, Indian National Congress

In Karakat, the contest is between sitting JDU MP Mahabali Singh, RJD candidate and former Union Minister, Kanti Singh, CPIML-Liberation’s Rajaram Singh, a former MLA and Upendra Kushwaha of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party which is in alliance with BJP. Karakat Lok Sabha constituency comprises six Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly) segments. These are six assembly constituencies namely Bikramganj, Dehri, Karakat, Goh, Obra and Nabinagar under this Lok Sabha constituency. This constituency came into existence in 2008 on the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission of India. CPIML Liberation has won Karakat legislative assembly seat in the past.

In Gaya, the contest is between sitting JDU MLA and minister, Jitan Manjhi, BJP candidate Hari Manjhi,  former BJP MP Ramji Manjhi and Niranjan Kumar of CPIML-Liberation. Gaya Lok Sabha constituency has six legislative assembly constituencies namely, Sherghati, Barachatti, Bodh Gaya, Gaya Town, Belaganj and Wazirganj. Except for Gaya town from where Prem Kumar became a MLA, BJP does not much presence in this Lok Sabha constituency. 

In the past following Members of Parliament have been elected from this Lok Sabha constituency:

    1952: Vijneshwar Missir, Praja Socialist Party

    1957: Brajeshwar Prasad, Indian National Congress

    1962: Brajeshwar Prasad, Indian National Congress

    1967: Ram Dhani Das, Indian National Congress

    1971: Ishwar Chaudhary

    1977: Ishwar Chaudhary, Janata Party

    1980: Ram Swaroop Ram, Indian National Congress

    1984: Ram Swaroop Ram, Indian National Congress

    1989: Ishwar Chaudhary, Janata Dal

    1991: Rajesh Kumar, Janata Dal

    1996: Bhagwati Devi, Janata Dal

    1998: Krishna Kumar Chaudhary, Bharatiya Janata Party

    1999: Ramji Manjhi, Bharatiya Janata Party

    2004: Rajesh Kumar Manjhi, Rashtriya Janata Dal

    2009: Hari Manjhi, Bharatiya Janata Party

In Jamui, JDU’s sitting MLA, Uday Narayan Choudhary who is the speaker of Bihar State Assembly, faces contest from former MLA, Sudhanshu Bhaskar who is the RJD candidate, Chirag Paswan, the candidate from LJP which is in alliance with BJP AND Jaiprakash Das of CPIML-Liberation. This Lok Sabha constituency includes Tarapur, Sheikhpura, Sikandra, Jamui, Jhajha and Chakai assembly constituencies.

Addressing an election meeting in Sikandra, Jamui on April 7, Nitish Kumar had underlined that reliance on the fake Gujarat model of development has no relevance for Bihar but some parties in Bihar do not realize it.   

On April 8, Ram Vilas Paswan campaigned for his son Chirag Paswan and had addressed a election meeting at Sono, Jamui stating that there are rich and poor are the only two castes and defended his alliance with BJP.

This area has been represented by Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India and Janata Dal (United). In 2009, JDU had won this seat. The presence of LJP or BJP isn’t visible except in advertisements.     

In Aurangabad, former minister Bagi Kumar Verma is JDU’s candidate who faces tough battle from sitting MP Sushil Kumar Singh who left JDU and joined BJP ahead of the elections and Congress candidate, Nikhil Kumar, former Governor of Kerala.  This constituency has six legislative assembly seats, namely, Kutumba, Aurangabad, Rafiganj, Gurua, Imamganj and Tikari. Nikhil Kumar had won this seat in 2004. This constituency did not have BJP’s presence in the past.

The list of previous MPs from this area reveals it:

    1952: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Indian National Congress

    1957: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Indian National Congress

    1961: Ramesh Prasad Singh, Indian National Congress

    1962: Lalita Rajya Laxmi, SWA/Independent

    1967: Mudrika Sinha, Indian National Congress

    1971: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Indian National Congress (Organisation)

    1977: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Bharatiya Lok Dal

    1980: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Janata Party

    1984: Satyendra Narayan Singh, Indian National Congress

    1989: Ram Naresh Singh, Janata Dal

    1991: Ram Naresh Singh, Janata Dal

    1996: Virendra Kumar Singh, Janata Dal

    1998: Sushil Kumar Singh, Samata Party

    1999: Shyama Singh, Indian National Congress

    2004: Nikhil Kumar, Indian National Congress

    2009: Sushil Kumar Singh, Janata Dal (United)

In Nawada, electoral battle is between RJD candidate Rajballabh Yadav, a former minister, JDU’s Kaushal Yadav and BJP’s Giriraj Singh, a former minister. BJP’s siiting MP from this constituency, Bhola Singh is contesting from Begusarai. Giriraj Singh wish to contest from Begusarai was not granted. This constituency has six legislative assembly seats namely, Barbigha, Rajauli, Hisua, Nawada,  Gobindpur and Warsaliganj. This seat does have significant presence of BJP since 1999. But this seat has been represented by Bharatiya Lok Dal, Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Rashtriya Janata Dal and BJP besides an independent. It cannot be deemed safe seat for any party.  

In terms of electoral fortunes, in all likelihood, the status quo is not going to change in any significant manner. These six seats from Bihar are unlikely to give any clear signal to UPA, NDA or Federal Front.